What Separates the Great Developers from the Rest and Why Build Now?

With many sitting on the sidelines and headlines flashing uncertainty, the real estate development space is undergoing a pivotal shift. So, why do seasoned developers say now is an ideal time to invest—and what separates those who thrive from those who stall?

In a recent webinar featuring Payton Mayes, CEO of JPI, Jay Parsons, Economic Advisor of JPI and Jill Homan, Managing Partner of Pinnacle Partners, the spotlight turned to what truly defines great developers and why the current conditions present a rare window of opportunity.

Builders vs. Buyers: What’s Really Going On?

The core issue isn’t demand—it’s supply. Buying at scale isn’t necessarily easier or cheaper than building, noted Jay. 

While the acquisition market remains constrained, development is gaining attention. Why? Because in many cases, the supply pipeline is drying up, and what begins construction today will be delivered into a very different, low-supply market in 2026–2027.

The Forecast: Supply Decline = Long-Term Opportunity

• Supply peaked in 2023–2024
• By 2025, fewer than 300,000 units are expected to complete nationwide
• Starts are dropping fast, with fewer projects entering the pipeline

“Supply is the easiest variable to forecast,” said Jay. “What starts today delivers in 18–24 months—and we’re seeing a sharp decline in starts.”

That makes 2024 the sweet spot for starting new projects with a likely lease-up advantage and reduced competition in 2026 and beyond.

Why Rent Growth Isn’t the Whole Story

Wage growth is outpacing rent growth for 26 straight months, and “that’s a win for renters—and a long-term win for developers,” noted Jay.

This trend is widening the demand funnel:

• More people can afford apartments
• Market-rate renters are spending less of their income on rent
• Affordability is becoming a tailwind, not a headwind, heading into 2026-2027

What Makes Great Developers Stand Out

Everyone has a plan—but not everyone can execute it. The real differentiators for a leading developer such as JPI is their ability to move now while others hesitate, having a strategic foresight in navigating construction headwinds and their commitment to workforce and affordable housing, despite market pressures. Execution, not ideas, defines success in this cycle.

In conclusion, the fundamentals are setting up a strong case for new development now due to the thinning supply and wage growth outpacing rent growth, which means execution-focused developers will rise above the rest. 

“You can’t predict everything—but you can forecast supply. And right now, the smart money is building,” said Jay.

Watch our video below to learn more 

If you’d like to request a full deck or to learn more about our Workforce Housing Fund, visit us here. 

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